The Trump Trade Shock - by Barry C. Knapp

This week’s note provides a comprehensive analysis of the surprisingly large trade surplus penalties, examining their economic implications and historical context. The note then discusses the decent March employment report and resultant delay in the Fed policy rate pivot. As negative as the first sections of the note read, we suspect the policy outlook is bottoming out.

https://ironsidesmacro.substack.com/p/the-trump-shock